Musk Shifts AGI Timeline Again: Predicts 2026 After Missing 2025 Target

Daily Technology

18/12/2025

Elon Musk, CEO of xAI, has once again revised his prediction for the advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), now suggesting it could be achieved as early as 2026. This comes after a similar prediction last year that AGI would arrive by 2025, a deadline that has now passed.

Key Takeaways

Elon Musk has updated his AGI timeline, now targeting 2026.
This follows a previous prediction of AGI by 2025, which has not materialized.
Musk's AGI predictions are often seen as tied to his companies' funding and development cycles.
The definition of AGI remains a subject of debate.

A Shifting Timeline

In May 2024, during a conversation with Logan Kilpatrick, head of product at Google AI Studio, Musk stated that AGI would be achieved "next year" (referring to 2025). With 2025 drawing to a close, this prediction has not come to fruition. The latest projection from Musk, as reported by Business Insider, places the potential arrival of AGI within the next couple of years, specifically by 2026.

Musk's History of Predictions and Motivations

Musk has a well-documented history of making ambitious and often optimistic predictions about his ventures. Critics suggest that his pronouncements on AI, including AGI, are frequently strategic, aimed at generating excitement and driving investment in his companies, such as xAI, which he founded in July 2023. This pattern was evident when he publicly advocated for a pause in AI development in early 2023, while simultaneously building his own AI project at Twitter.

The Ambiguity of AGI

A significant challenge in discussing AGI is the lack of a universally agreed-upon definition. Generally, AGI refers to artificial intelligence that possesses cognitive abilities comparable to or exceeding those of humans across a wide range of tasks. However, defining concepts like "cognitive abilities" and "any task" proves complex. Some interpretations also include the notion of self-awareness or consciousness in AI, raising further philosophical and ethical questions.

Funding and Future Prospects

According to the Business Insider report, Musk informed xAI staff that the company is securing substantial funding, estimated at "around $20 billion to $30 billion per year." When approached for comment on the report, an xAI email auto-response stated, "Legacy Media Lies," reflecting Musk's often contentious relationship with the press.

Beyond AGI, Musk is also pursuing advancements in robotics, with Tesla aiming to produce one million humanoid Optimus robots annually within the next five years. However, the successful integration of these robots, particularly without teleoperation, remains a hurdle. Musk also recently promised a demonstration of a flying car by the end of the current year.

2025-07-28

Crunchyroll Lights Up the Big Screen with Monthly "Anime Nights" Program

Crunchyroll announces "Anime Nights," a new monthly program bringing anime movies and episodes to theaters across the US, starting October.